{
 "dataset": "sba-cohorts",
 "title": "How often the loan actually goes bad, by vintage",
 "subject": "24 cohorts · Hennepin + Ramsey + Dakota + Anoka + Washington + Scott + Carver · 7,477 disbursed loans · charge-offs within 36 months of approval · SBA's file as of 2026-06-30",
 "source": "U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) & 504 FOIA release",
 "scope": "every cohort",
 "built_from": "website/api/_data/twincities_sba_loans.json",
 "read_before_quoting": "THE RATE THIS FILE DOES NOT PUBLISH IS THE ONE PEOPLE COMPUTE. Dividing charge-offs by RESOLVED loans is the natural cut of a status column and it reads 80.5% for FY2023, because a loan that fails fails early and a loan that pays in full takes years to say so — the young vintage's resolved pool is almost entirely its own failures. That number is a maturity artifact and not a default rate. Every rate here is instead measured over the WHOLE cohort at a fixed age of 36 months. 8 of 24 cohorts have not reached that age and carry no rate at all — read `rate_so_far_pct` there and read it as a floor, because their remaining loans have not been asked the question yet. COHORTS COMPARE WITHIN A PROGRAMME AND WITHIN A BLOCK, NEVER ACROSS. SBA's 7(a) release begins at FY2020 and the 504 release at FY2010, so there is no pre-pandemic 7(a) baseline in existence to compare against — a 'decade near zero' in this market is a 504 decade. FY2020 and FY2021 sit inside pandemic forbearance and deferment, and 7(a) origination here went from 321 disbursed loans in its first year to over 900 at its peak, so the borrower mix moved with the volume. A CHARGE-OFF IS THE LENDER'S ACCOUNTING EVENT, not a verdict on the business — it can follow a sale, a restructure or a death, and the business may still be trading. 8,822 SBA loans approved in this market: 7(a) from FY2020 and 504 from FY2010, $4.69bn approved in total, 125 of them charged off. THE ADDRESS IS THE BORROWER'S, NOT THE SITE'S. SBA publishes no project address, and a borrower address is sometimes a home or an accountant's office. 3,380 of 8,822 (38.3%) resolve to a parcel in our index, which is COMMERCIAL-ONLY — an unplaced loan is usually a real business at an address we do not index, never a business that does not exist. THE TWO PROGRAMMES CARRY DIFFERENT COLUMNS: only 7(a) has an interest rate and a guaranteed amount, only 504 has a third-party lender, and blank means the programme does not publish it rather than zero. A CHARGE-OFF IS THE LENDER'S ACCOUNTING EVENT, not a verdict on the business — it can follow a sale, a restructure or a death, and the business may still be trading.",
 "licence": {
  "attribution": "Brick & Mortar — https://brickandmortar.dev/",
  "authorities": [
   "U.S. Small Business Administration"
  ],
  "basis": "A work of the United States government, which is not subject to copyright protection in the U.S. (17 U.S.C. § 105).",
  "id": "CC BY 4.0",
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "columns": [
  {
   "key": "program",
   "label": "programme"
  },
  {
   "key": "approval_fy",
   "label": "approval FY"
  },
  {
   "key": "window",
   "label": "36-month window"
  },
  {
   "key": "loans_disbursed",
   "label": "disbursed loans"
  },
  {
   "key": "charged_off_within_window",
   "label": "charged off in window"
  },
  {
   "key": "default_rate_pct",
   "label": "default rate %"
  },
  {
   "key": "approved_dollars",
   "label": "approved $"
  },
  {
   "key": "dollar_default_rate_pct",
   "label": "default rate % of $"
  }
 ],
 "rows": [
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2026,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 10,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 4485000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2025,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 69,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 73230000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2024,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 81,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 68030000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2023,
   "window": "partly closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 96,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 89223000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2022,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 162,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 155607000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2021,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 184,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 138181000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2020,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 105,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 74705000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2019,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 121,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 99633000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2018,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 112,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 77699000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2017,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 108,
   "charged_off_within_window": 1,
   "default_rate_pct": 0.93,
   "approved_dollars": 68043000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0.1
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2016,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 125,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 91920000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2015,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 115,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 78880000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2014,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 115,
   "charged_off_within_window": 1,
   "default_rate_pct": 0.87,
   "approved_dollars": 68339000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0.19
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2013,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 131,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 73396000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2012,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 167,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 103760000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2011,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 124,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 74176000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "504",
   "approval_fy": 2010,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 102,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": 0,
   "approved_dollars": 53055000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2026,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 321,
   "charged_off_within_window": 0,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 173763500,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2025,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 903,
   "charged_off_within_window": 2,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 404955600,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2024,
   "window": "open",
   "loans_disbursed": 980,
   "charged_off_within_window": 4,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 438958100,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2023,
   "window": "partly closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 957,
   "charged_off_within_window": 26,
   "default_rate_pct": null,
   "approved_dollars": 409731000,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": null
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2022,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 773,
   "charged_off_within_window": 23,
   "default_rate_pct": 2.98,
   "approved_dollars": 373909900,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0.98
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2021,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 903,
   "charged_off_within_window": 6,
   "default_rate_pct": 0.66,
   "approved_dollars": 521550300,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0.14
  },
  {
   "program": "7(a)",
   "approval_fy": 2020,
   "window": "closed",
   "loans_disbursed": 713,
   "charged_off_within_window": 2,
   "default_rate_pct": 0.28,
   "approved_dollars": 315691700,
   "dollar_default_rate_pct": 0.07
  }
 ]
}